Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
US Dollar Index
Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of January 20th, 2025. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index. Now, we are in a holiday-short week with Martin Luther King Day on Monday, so markets will be a little thin for the start of the week but should pick up by Wednesday or Tuesday. Wednesday, we do have the new Administration; I believe it’s on Monday, the inauguration, so it’ll be a choppy week to say the least. Now, the dollar is at key support, very critical support coming in at the yearly opening price, 108.52. Our TCross Long, equally critical at 108.70—these are the two levels we need to watch to see if we can hold above these predicted levels. Now again, our neural index is pointing higher for the dollar. The predicted differences here, though, are very mixed; predicted RSI, we don’t have momentum to the downside, so we are likely, at least for the better part of next week, to trade near the high, 110.17, and our low at that yearly opening price. But again, guys, we need a break of one of these two levels to tell us what the next move will be, and as the main thing is this being an Outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened, we need to know these levels going into trading next week. So, the Monday, Tuesday reversal that we usually see will likely shift to Tuesday and Wednesday. So, be very careful on Wednesday. I expect very high volume, but the dollar, for now, I would argue, is still bullish, but it’s losing momentum.
Gold
Now, when we gauge that against the Gold Markets and the S&P 500, both of these are also bullish above the calendar year opening price, that’s coming in at 2607. That’s our main retracement point, along with our T Cross Long at 2656.56. The T Cross Long is a very, very important level, but for now, we do have one or two verified resistance zones that are sitting just above that 2700 mark, 2715. We would need to break free and clear of 2720 for the uptrend on gold to remain in place this month, but we do have to see how these tariffs are going to work out and how the Fed is going to respond to the most recent data, which is much softer—the PPI, the CPI—and I still argue the payroll number was not strong, with over 30,000 government jobs and downward revisions. So, a lot going on as we move into the end of the month, but gold remains bullish, at least for now.
When we look at the stock market, once again, it’s starting to recoup its losses. We move back over the current yearly opening price, 5903, is a very big level. We need to hold above this level if stocks can move higher. We have staggered resistance up here at the high, 6092, another verified resistance at 6063. Those are upside targets. We’ll reassess once we get up here, but again, for now, stocks are recovering here. We have a short, medium, and a long-term crossover, and we have momentum building with the predicted RSI breaking that 60 level. So again, a lot of activity. You can see here that I have the long predicted and the T Cross Long both on the chart, creating my own predicted moving average pivot areas with a crossover that’s coming in at 5932, 5933. So, a lot of good support down to 5903.
Bitcoin
When we look at again, Bitcoin continues to power ahead here, as of Saturday’s trading, I believe we’re sitting around the 105 mark approximately, but again, very, very strong support. They tried to flush the market out down into the 90,000 mark, but the market simply wasn’t buying into it. They immediately picked up on it as a buying opportunity and pushed it higher once again. Very strong support, we can see we have our MA Diff Cross that has taken place, which is telling us we’ve got—we are likely to—at least hit retrace back to the 108 area, but a very good possibility of hitting the 126 area this particular month, and if not, February is again looking very, very good for Bitcoin. We want to keep an eye on the new Administration; are they going to imply that Bitcoin is now a reserve for the US, which is possible? We’ll see, but either way, Bitcoin’s future does look pretty good here. But watch for that resistance at the 108.26 area. Again, most of your indicators in VP remain very bullish, and I am looking for an extension higher.
Crude Oil
Now, Oil is basically starting to cap out here. You can see that I have the long predicted and the T Cross Long on the same screen, and for VP users, I’ll show you how you do that. Our long-term crossover here, without the black line, just the predicted moving average, then we have our triple EMA cross with just the T Cross Long. This gives me the two pivot areas I need. So, with light SED Crude Oil, the long predicted 77 mark, the T Cross Long, 74.22. Looking at the VP indicators, it looks to be warning that we’re heading lower here. So, the next retracement point if we can break through 77 would be 74.42. Now, the current yearly opening price, 79.2, we’re not going to turn bearish on oil until such time we get below that calendar yearly opening price, if we do at all. So again, the main thing going into live trading next week is that you know these critical levels.
Volatility Index
Now, when I look at the VIX into a comparative, the VIX is losing ground here again, suggesting the stocks do have room to move. The only thing that concerns me a little bit here, guys, is the neural index strength is actually pointing up, while the neural index is giving a warning sign. Our predicted short, medium, and long-term crossovers completed to the downside, but just barely. A bigger concern is I’d like to see this predicted RSI starting to turn back up here. Something is warning it that there’s going to be—that potentially, we could have some problems with stocks next week, but for now, things do look negative on the VIX.
DAX
When we look at our European Equity markets, they remain quite strong here. We’re pushing higher, as I discussed last week. Our yearly opening price, long while above that area, 19,923. Everything looks good here, but again, the bit of the wild card with the Trump inauguration, I think everything should be okay, but it could cause some volatility in the global equity markets with these tariffs. So, I’m not sure how, if he’s going to put those in for sure, we’ll wait and see, but for now, buying stocks definitely is a reasonable play.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, when we look at the Euro-US Dollar pair going into next week, once again, the euro is knocking on the door, trying to break through the calendar yearly opening price. Now, this is very important again, that you use the current calendar yearly opening price. We don’t want to drag 2024 into 2025, particularly the month of December, a low volume month. So, if we can get above here, again, right now, the euro is still struggling below the 103 level. That current yearly opening price, 103.57, we must get above that, guys. Right now, the euro is still technically bearish. We’ve got to break above that area, so that is the area to watch. If you don’t want to get involved with the fireworks and the ups and downs of things, then simply put your buy limit orders above that T Cross Long, say around 103.60. We get to 103.60; we should be able to break higher from there. But again, that is going to be the problem area. You can see we hit that level almost to the number within four pips on Wednesday, and we failed directly on that area. So again, be cautious with this one, but we could see longs developing in the weeks ahead.
U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc
Now, with the US-Swiss Franc, once again, I’ve got both my predicted moving averages on here. This is a custom predicted moving average setup where we don’t use the standard moving average, just the long-term crossover or the long—the long predicted and the T Cross Long. So, right now, again, this pair has been under pressure most of the week, but we need to break down below 90.82 to really get shorts moving. I believe that’s reasonable at this time of the month. I just—we again, we just need to get past the incoming Administration to see what their actual plan is, is going forward in relation to these tariffs.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar
Now, with the Pound-Dollar, again, with all of these G7 pairs, they have one thing in common: they’re trading against the US Dollar. So if the Dollar Index slides, most of these other currencies will strengthen. Bitcoin will strengthen. Gold will strengthen. Hopefully, the equity markets will start to move higher, but again, the British pound is
a little considerably more bearish than the euro is. And again, when we look at this, we do have an MA Diff Cross. We’ve got a verified support low that’s coming at 1.21. That is a very significant level of support. We need a consistent break below that; shorts definitely are risky down here, but if we can break down below that particular level of 1.21 and stay below that level for a few days, then the pound could make another leg lower. But at this time, my optimism on that remains heavily guarded until I see some of the new policies coming out of the US.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now, the Dollar-Yen, the Bank of Japan, of course—of course, they’re talking up a potential rate hike because they’re basically smelling blood in the water with this Fed continually making decisions on lagging data—the CPI, the payroll number. So, if they hike and the Fed does have to cut, that is going to be a problem for—a very serious problem for the carry trade. If the Fed has to cut considerably and the Bank of Japan even just hikes once or twice, so again, be careful of this. The key levels that I can tell you, the T Cross Long, 156.51, but the yearly opening, 157.28, that is the important level that you really need to watch. As long as we’re staying below 157.28, the pair is indisputably bearish. It’s negative on the year, and in most cases, a trend will develop in the first quarter, usually in the first six weeks of the new trading year. So, monitor that area very closely. Your savvy traders can actually straddle the yearly opening. They can sell into the level and then have buy limit orders ready to go above 157.50, for example. But right now, there’s a slight bias to the downside.
U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
Now, the US-Canadian Dollar pair, once again, is starting to turn back up. Canada definitely in turmoil right now; we’re finally getting rid of Justin Trudeau. That should strengthen the currency in and of itself, but we’ve got to completely get rid of him before the Canadian dollar responds positively. We need confirmation there will be no tariffs on Canadian oil and gas. That’s a very important point that I want to make. So again, with the Prime Minister resigning, he was going to be voted out anyway with no confidence, but he’s left, so we will see what we get from here. But for now, the tariffs are critical to the direction of the next move on the Canadian dollar. If Trump puts tariffs on Canada, then that is going to be a big problem for the Canadian dollar, and we could easily extend into the 1.5015 area. And I will simply comment here that that’s where Trudeau’s father where the currency was at, so the apple definitely doesn’t fall far from the tree when it comes to economics and the damage done to the Canadian dollar, but he’s leaving now, so we’ll see what we get. But as long as those tariffs don’t go on, then in 2025, by probably April and May, you’re going to start to see a much stronger Canadian dollar. That’s what us in Canada are hoping for, but again, we have to get rid of him first. So we’ll see how this one plays out.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
The Aussie and the Kiwi are going to be directly at the mercy of the equity markets and, believe it or not, even the Dollar Index. So, you can see that the Aussie is just barely positive on the year, and it’s really struggling along the yearly opening price, $0.6189. If the Canadian dollar can rebound, then the Aussie and the Kiwi will likely follow, or we may see the Canadian dollar move lower, but the Aussie and the Kiwi will remain firm. But we must stay above this level. The immediate signal going into next week is we’re still technically bearish here, guys. We’ve got to get above that T Cross Long, that area coming in at 0.6231. We need to break above that in order for this pair to get moving, but I believe that could be a very good year for the Kiwi and the Aussie.
New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
We just need to clear the level. The Kiwi, as you can see, is sitting right along the same exact level, the yearly opening price there, 0.5602. We must get above that, and we, if we can break through the T Cross Long, it’s coming at 0.5632, then I think we have a really good potentially long trade, but I don’t think it’s going to be next week, guys. It could be, but I think we’re still about a month out before the dollar really starts to show some weakness. So again, a very busy week ahead, but with that, there will definitely be some opportunity. So, with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of January the 20th, 2025.
