Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
US Dollar Index
Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Ferman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of January 27th, 2025.
Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do, with that very important US Dollar Index. What we can assess here is that we have slipped below the calendar yearly opening price, which makes it our key resistance going into next week’s trading. Because again, this is an outlook, guys, not a recap of something that’s already taken place. So, 105.52 is our key level. Now, for this week’s presentation, I’ll be using the long predicted and the T cross long, making my own custom moving average predicted moving average crossover. Both of those have gone off, so we have significant resistance starting again at about 108.12, then we have our TR cross long at 108.40, and that very important yearly opening price at 108.52. Now, the indicators remain bearish, but here is the warning that I will give you: in most cases, the dollar is strong at the end of the month into the first week of the new month. So, if the dollar is going to turn around, it very likely could be on Wednesday. The event risk that you’ll be dealing with is the Federal Reserve. It will be choppy, it will be contradictory, you will have all kinds of probably the Fed saying different things, but at the end of it, he will say it’s all going to be data dependent. So again, be cautious of that dollar strength coming Tuesday, when Tuesday probably for the remainder of the week, depending again on what his position is this time.
Gold
So, how does that look like for Gold? Now, gold is approaching another very strong resistance area here, one of the verified zones going back into October. I think we were up around, I think just short of 2800, 2670 area. So, we’re closing a very strong week, but as you can see, we’re right on that 2790-2800 mark. If the dollar does turn on the Fed, or the Fed indicates that there is not going to be any, or not as many rate cuts in 2025, gold will feel the heat of that, and you’re likely looking at a retracement. So, watch the long predicted 2741, but I believe 2700 is possible in the days and weeks ahead. So, keep an eye out for that. The indicators right now again do remain bullish, but a little overextended. That doesn’t mean it can’t move higher. I think the biggest detriment to gold will be the Fed, so we’ll see what he does, but for now, it does still remain bullish, but again, if you have, you’re going into a period of known dollar strength, that probably next week is not the week to buy gold, in my only, in my respectful opinion.
Crude Oil
Now, when we look at Oil prices, again, oil taking a hard turn back down after it hit the monthly projected targets here, very, very close to the 80 mark, and then you can see we’re failing, but now we’re getting all tangled up in the T cross long. To be clear, oil remains bullish on the calendar year while above 79.20. This is a tool that most people don’t use; they use a rolling performance model, the last 5 days, the last random 30 days, or 90 days. We need proper anchor points in our trading here, guys. The first of the month, first of the quarter, first of the week, and certainly the first of the year. So again, while they’re saying that oil is incredibly bearish, well, that’s a half-truth, in my respectful opinion, because if we measure at where we are, if you bought oil at the beginning of the calendar year, then it actually is not anywhere near as bearish as what they’re making it out to be. The calculator still shows, calculation, excuse me, still shows a positive 4.3% on the calendar year. We’re only in the first month here, guys, that’s pretty darn good for oil contracts. So, if we break down below that T cross long, yes, we are likely going to go lower, but for now, I believe that 70.92 is likely going to hold, the bulls should be able to hold this particular area, and if they don’t, then we can look at shorts then. But again, the first obstacle is getting below and staying below 74.57.
Bitcoin
Now Bitcoin, again running a little bit sideways as we’re coming into month-end, but another good month, right out of the gate for Bitcoin. The current yearly opening price here, 99,1198, we have very strong support at our T cross long and our long predicted, that’s coming in at 104,0333, and more specifically, 101,614. These are our two key support levels again. This is the long predicted, the T cross long, so this is a makeshift crossover that I use, but what I really want from these two areas is that pivot point to tell me if it’s going to hold. So, we did come down and test it on Wednesday, hit it, and it bounced back up, but right now, as long as we’re staying, again above 93,804, Bitcoin remains a buy on a dip, guys, and we’ve already hit it a couple of times in this choppiness at the beginning of the month, but it was very clear that Bitcoin is going higher. So again, look for that opportunity to buy on a dip.
$SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Now, the equity markets here got a bit of a mixed bag here. It does look quite bullish as we’re coming into this, the verified resistance zones, on the spies and on the S&P 500, and again, same trade, but once again, guys, we don’t want to measure performance in random locations, random 30 days, random 5 days, no, no, no, we need to know exactly, particularly in the first quarter of the year, are we above the quarterly and yearly opening price? The answer is yes, we are. The problem I’m seeing here is the VP predictive indicators, the predicted differences, and even the predicted RSI are starting to warn me that wait a minute, this trend may not be as strong as what it looks. We’ve got pretty good numbers here still, but that neural index strength, you can see, is starting to push down. The neural index itself is green; however, again, that neural index strength is saying we’re losing momentum. So, our downside pivot areas here are long predicted 6050, T cross long 5988, but the yearly opening price at 5903, we’re still a buy on a dip as long as we’re holding above that particular level.
DAX
Now, when we do a comparison to the European markets, once again, very similar, very, it looks very toppy up here, and the predicted differences are starting to point down, the predicted RSI is hit 94.8, it too is sloping down, but for both the DAX and the S&P 500, the VIX is what I think you want to keep your eye on right now. You can, hopefully, you guys can see this okay. I do my best to put 1080 up here; it keeps coming up at 720. I can’t help it; the resolution, but 720 resolution on the screen is very good. But either way, the pink line is crossing over the blue line, and that is warning that the bit, the VIX could be getting ready to turn higher. So, we are negative on the year, 17.71, staggered resistance from 16.85 to 17.31, but again, this could be just a reversal signal saying the VIX is going to go up towards back and retrace back to these levels, that would be perfectly normal at this time of year, because again, with that known period of dollar strength at the end of the month into the first week of the new month. So, if you be a little bit cautious with any of the global indices this week because they, there could be a corrective move, not a necessarily a trend reversal. This VIX would have to clearly break through that 17.71 area, and that’s going to be a tall order, based around the Fed and everything else, but we’ll monitor, just keep a very close eye, if that VIX starts moving up, then be careful with your stock trades.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, when we look at some of our main Forex pairs, the Euro has broken, has broken out to the upside this past week, a very nice move off the off the Monday trading bar, and as you can see, we’re pushing higher. So, I don’t think the euro is out of the woods here yet, especially going into Fed week. So, our yearly opening price 1.0357, but the key Vantage Point support levels are above that, 1.0413, 1.0336, so I’m going to need a breakdown below 1.0357 before I start shorting this, guys. Now, you may have a trade up here at these verified zones, but it will be data-dependent what the Fed is going to do, if he has, if he even has a plan, which sometimes I really don’t think he does. So, we’ll listen to what he has to say, but again, I don’t believe he has a lot of these economic factors correct, more specifically those labor reports. So, we’ll see what he does, but for now, the euro does remain somewhat bullish while we’re holding above 1.0357; that is your key pivot area, and our TR cross long is just above that at 1.0376.
U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc
The US Swiss Franc, if the dollar is going to turn around, then we would potentially see, if on Tuesday and Wednesday, if we’re back up again, the current quarterly opening price 0.9063, which is the same as the yearly and the monthly, obviously at this first week or the first month of the new year, but 0.9063 is where all the battle lines are going to be drawn next week. If we’re holding below this by the latter part of the week, then the dollar’s in trouble, but if we’re back up above 0.9063, then longs are back on, on this pair for at least another week, week and a half. Now, the indicators again are also, you can see the predicted differences are starting to run sideways, if that pink line crosses the blue line, then the continuation of the uptrend is what we, we would be looking at, but my optimism on that from a medium to longer-term perspective remains heavily, heavily guarded.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar
The Pound Dollar, going into next week’s trading, the pound had a very nice break on Friday, but as you can see, it stalled right on 1.2513, the calendar yearly opening price. This is again demonstrating the power of this tool, that this trend, while all the technical indicators look very, very bullish here, it actually may not be, and again, I’ve seen some of the more nefarious players set things up like this prior to going into the first week of the new trading month or into the very last few days of the trading month, and it’s a bit of a manipulation, in my view, so be careful around this 1.2513, we need to be holding above this by, you know, by mid to latter part of the week. If we can’t break above this and stay above this level, we’ve got a problem. Another thing I forewarn everybody of is Monday trading, if you get a big break above the yearly opening price, you need to stay above that on Tuesday and Wednesday, just remember that, guys, they’re going, they’re going to try and fake you out, and I think we can, I can see what they’re up to, just be very, very cautious. The indicators are bullish, but again, that could turn very quickly if there’s real dollar demand.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now, the Dollar Yen, in my respectful opinion only, I’ve already set off the alarm bells with the carry trade this year, the dollar yen is, it does look quite bearish. Our yearly opening price here is going to come in at 157.28, make sure all stops are above that area, guys, don’t get stopped out where, between where the price is now and the current yearly opening price, we may come right up to that, hit it, and fail again. A lot of chatter about the Bank of Japan hiking, I believe they will, and I believe they’re going to take advantage of a less competent Federal Reserve, Mr. Powell. So again, we’ll see how this plays out, but watch those key levels, all the VP key levels, 156.16, 156.41, then our yearly and quarterly opening price is at 157.28, these are the key levels that you want to watch, guys, if we’re holding below them, the carry trade is likely coming apart. My concern here, which I will warn again, the pain, the medium-term predicted difference, the strength of the medium-term crossover, that downside is losing momentum here, another warning sign that we could be seeing dollar strength next week, so watch it closely, but we have very little momentum on the predicted RSI, it’s just running flat right along the 40 level, with an MA diff cross to the upside. Now, this may just be corrective, but I suspect not, so another warning sign, we could be seeing that dollar strength next week.
U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
Now, the US Canadian pair, I would respectfully submit that you should limit trading on the US Mexican Peso and the Canadian Dollar because they’re the ones that are going to be taking the brunt of the tariffs. Now again, when we look at this, we want to say, where are we with this pair? Well, we are going to have a change of government in Canada soon, that’s a huge positive for Canada, getting rid of Trudeau, but then you’ve got these tariffs we have to worry about, so we’re not sure which way that’s going right now, so this pair will be very choppy, but I also believe this will be one heck of a good short later this year into the second quarter, maybe it’s starting now, but I don’t think so, I think we’re looking at probably April, May before the current Canadian dollar starts to really rebound and show the true trend for 2025, which I, I, I believe could be down, as long as we don’t get those tariffs. So again, the indicators right now are bearish, we are below the T cross long, the yearly opening price 1.4380, this is the level you need to focus on very, very closely, guys. Okay, and we’ve closed the week at 1.4345. If this pair goes down on a Monday, you buy it on Tuesday; if it goes up on a Monday, you sell it on on Tuesday. I can’t explain it, what it is with this pair, but it happens consistently, probably 40, 45 of the 52 weeks per year, so keep an eye on that, but be cautious of these Monday, Tuesday reversals with this particular pair, but we are, and I am seeing that it’s showing some type of momentum here, we’re at 38.2 in the predicted RSI, predicted differences are negative, neural index is pointing down, so I think the initial move for Monday will be down, but be careful of it on Tuesday.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
The Aussie and the Kiwi, both performing relatively well last week, but not necessarily based on their fundamental, but more on dollar weakness. So again, we’ve got to be cautious of the bull trap with these equity-based currencies. If the, if the VIX is correct and it’s going higher, stocks are going lower, then that does not favor the Canadian, the Aussie, or the Kiwi, that’s the inner market correlation you really need to know. So for now, this looks very bullish, but we’ve got a verified resistance high coming at 63.02. Now, very strong close for the week, not 63.13, is a pretty decent close, but we’ve got to keep this momentum going, and as you can see, there’s that pink line crossing, trying to cross the blue line. All of these, a number of things I’ve talked about in this week’s outlook point towards US Dollar shrink next week; it’s just a matter of getting past the Fed. Are they going to reposition before the Fed, or after the Fed, or both? So again, be very careful with this pair, but I believe it will likely be retracing back towards the 62 area before we make the next run higher, and the same thing is going to apply to the Kiwi.
New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
The Kiwi is not, we do not have the MA diff cross yet, but it likely is coming. So again, these pairs are dependent on equity markets moving higher, the US Dollar moving lower, so we will have a choppy week, guys, with the Fed. It’s anyone’s guess what he’s going to say this time, but in the end, remember what I said, he’s likely going to finish with the terminology ‘we data dependent’, so it usually ends up, the market has a big overreaction, and then it just turns into a whole big nothing burger. So be careful with things next week, but still, with the volatility, there will be opportunity. So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of January the 27th, 2025.
