Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Dollar Index
Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of November 18th, 2024. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index. What we can assess, or what I can assess here, is the true performance. We always measure from the beginning of each new month, each new week, each new quarter, each new year, so we get an accurate measurement of performance. The dollar is up 3.06% in just 10 days.
Now, the election, for the most part, is done. Now, the fundamental picture on the Dollar has changed to some degree. I think most of us had some idea who was going to win the election, but the House and the Senate are the wild cards here. So now, the new Administration will have full Congressional support in anything they’re doing, and that could change the outlook of the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar in general. So, when I look at this now, we have significant headwinds between 106 and 107, but we could move higher than that. We look here now for any type of contrarian indicator in the VP software that would tell us, okay, this move is a little overextended; we’re going to have a corrective move back to our T-cross long, that area coming in at 105.
Now, the tool MVP that I see producing somewhat of a corrective sell signal at this time is the MA Diff Cross. As we can assess here, the predicted RSI has been in overbought territory for an extended period of time, but the MA Diff Cross, what it tells us, is that the medium-term trend is weakening against the longer-term uptrend, and that’s that pink line crossing over the blue line. Now, any move lower would be, in my respectful opinion, corrective in nature at this particular time because, again, the fundamental picture is not what all of us anticipated. I personally did not think that the Republicans would take both the House and the Senate, but they have. So, again, anything that’s going to get done, well, it’ll be very interesting to see how things progress.
So again, the further we move away from the VPT cross long, currently at 105, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace to it. A secondary level if we click on our F8 in our VP software, we have our long predicted; that’s at 106.08. So, the immediate support to begin the week, because again, guys, always remember this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened here. So, 106 is the first level to test to see if we can break down, and again, looking at that contrarian signal with the MA Diff Cross, a corrective move is entirely likely. But again, a very positive outlook right now for the US Economy.
Gold
Now, when we measure that directly against Gold, you can see that Gold is down 6.61%, still firmly above its yearly opening price at 2066. And, I would argue, 90% of the time, guys, Gold goes up in the month of December, so I would not count Gold out just yet. So again, another contrarian buy signal here, the MA Diff Cross we’ve been sitting in. Again, this is why we have to be very, very cautious when we talk about overbought and oversold. The predicted RSI has been oversold since the market started moving, but again, as you can see, this breakdown using the current monthly opening price, you can see four days in a row we’re hitting into that monthly opening price at 2743. We come down, retrace back to it, and then the real move shows itself. But, to be clear, guys, Gold is still bullish while above 2066. We’re still positive on the calendar year. We need to get further information from the Fed, but I believe he will have to cut considerably in 2025. But now, you could have, with some of the new policies coming in, you could have inflationary pressures which again could support a higher dollar. So, we do need to be cautious here, but in the month of December, usually, that is when Gold makes its move on a weaker dollar. But this year, I will concede, could be very different now that the election, for the most part, is completely finished, with the Republicans making a clean sweep of just about everything.
S&P 500 Index
Now, when we look at the S&P 500, for again the true performance on the month here, guys, we can’t shift where we pick our performance measurement from random days; we want to know exactly what is going on in the month of November. So we’ve been up 5%. We’ve retraced back to the T cross long. We don’t quite yet have a crossover on the medium-term crossover; the long-term is quite a ways from that. But again, showing you the power of that MA Diff Cross when you combine it with a verified resistance zone, that area high at 6017, now in this particular environment, it is entirely possible that the equities and the dollar can go up at the same time as money moves into the US, the bond markets, everything else. So again, I’ll monitor this over the next several months, but for now, pressure is building on the downside, but I believe the stock markets will recover on this despite a stronger dollar. The T cross long, 58.82, that’s the area to keep your eye on. If we can get back above that by Tuesday and hold above that, it will confirm the short- or medium-term contrarian sell signal on that US Dollar Index, and then we may see some Gold come to life to some degree.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Now again, that monthly opening price of 5723 is very important. When we look at the performance of Light Sweet Crude Oil down 5% on the month, so that inverse correlation between the dollar and oil, again, if the economy is as strong as what they’re trying to tell us that it is in the US, then you would think oil prices would be turning around here soon. So there is a possibility of that, but we are below 7178, the current calendar yearly opening price. As long as we’re holding below that, Oil remains bearish. So again, most of the indicators are saying there’s more downside, but watch the two verified support lows. We have seen some buying there; the first low, 6664, and then the big one over here at $65.99. If you’re an Oil buyer, watch that area, but always look for a contrarian signal from one of the predictive VP indicators before you necessarily jump on that.
Bitcoin
Now, once again, the top performer indisputably here is Bitcoin. Again, as I’ve discussed since these webinars since the end of August, beginning of September, that there are known patterns with Bitcoin in October and November. So, we made a big push up 34.9% on the month here. Now, we have a newly formed verified resistance high at 93,331. So, once again, the question will be, can we break through that? And we very quickly, this past week, took out that 80 and 90,000 mark. Can we get above that psychological 100,000 mark? Well, the MA Diff Cross here is suggesting that we’re going to have a corrective move first. Now, once again, we use those predicted moving averages as pivot levels, our T cross long, 80,674. If we click on our F8 in the software, you can see how the market is in constant contact with this blue line. We don’t need to wait for a crossover here, guys. We can use the predicted moving average by itself and pick up longs or shorts on that area, so that particular immediate support level would come in at 88,259. I will respectfully submit that if we can hold above that level, then the 100,000 mark or a break of that level is still within reach. So again, you’re going to get some traders caught long, some traders caught short, but the pattern, the three-year pattern in Bitcoin, remains fully intact, meaning that next year is likely to be a very strong up. Also, then 2026, we start to run into problems, or a naturally occurring substantial corrective move where Bitcoin could be down 20, 30, 40%, but in the current environment, there’s a stronger argument for a clean break of the 100,000 mark.
Volatility Index ($VIX)
Now, when we look at the VIX here, the VIX continues. You can see once again, guys, this is the benefit of understanding proper anchor points. We don’t want to measure performance on the VIX using a random 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. We want to know where we are on the year. The VIX is bouncing off this area, and we’ve had a fairly substantial rally on the VIX on Friday. So, once again, when they’re telling you the VIX is bearish, in actual fact, it’s not. When we look at the MA Diff Cross, and we combine that with the current calendar yearly opening price at 15.01, we have a very good structure in the market, and we ignore conventional tools and say, ‘Well, they’re saying it’s bearish, but how could that be if I bought it on January 1st? I’m, this is still profitable.’ So, if it’s truly bearish, we’ll have a complete breakdown below the current yearly opening price, and that will tell us that the market is bullish on stocks and bearish on the VIX. They are not saying that right now. So again, we’ll continue to monitor this, but that MA Diff Cross is very important to watch because that will get you into a trade very quickly. Okay, so again, once if we look at that with a conventional blue line crossing the black line, it’s a great trade down, and you can see we had an MA Diff Cross here too that was several days before that crossover took place. Right now, the blue line has not crossed the black line, but the neural index strength, the MA Diff, we’ve got rising momentum to the upside. So that tells us we’ve got a little bit more downside on the stock market before we figure if we want to stay in the long on the equities. But if the US Economy is booming like they’re telling us it is, then stocks should be the place to be.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, when we look at the longer-term structure here, the Euro under pressure, yet again, guys, and this is all about interest rates, the economy, the Fed, the new Administration, tariffs, there’s a lot going on in this Forex pair. So, in this particular week, I would take us back a little bit further so we can see the structural bias of this particular market. The Euro has been holding above these lows, and they’re coming in around 1.0449. That’s the area we got to be careful of, guys. Now, if we lose this particular area here, then basically this longer-term, 2-year channel we’ve been running in between approximately 1.0456 and 1.1240, if this breaks, then you could see the Euro move towards parity or even below. But if it holds, then we look to go back towards our T-cross long from a corrective standpoint. But whenever you’re doing a short-term trade, guys, or even a medium-term trade, we’ve got to look at the long-term structural bias. I would have had a heavy bias, or I previously would have had a pretty heavy bias against the US Dollar based on the fundamentals, but it didn’t play out the way any of us thought it would, with a clean sweep of the House, the Senate, and the US Presidency. So, again, we need to see some of these policies before we go all in on the dollar, but for now, the market believes that this is going to be a good thing. So 1.0456 will likely come into play next week, or it’s very possible.
So, when we look at the long-term structure, then we come in and look at what is occurring now. So once again, I do see an MA Diff Cross. This tells me we have a corrective move higher on the Euro, but that’s all it would be, guys. When we look at, there’s your quarterly opening at 1.1135, 1.1038 on the yearly opening price, the monthly at 1.0884, and then we even use the weekly opening. But you can see that this is a very accurate market structure. And this is when you move to a rolling performance or you pick random, a random five days or random 30 days, it causes price distortion. That’s all it does in most cases, where this is very clear what’s going on here. Now, that was the election bar that I had talked about last week and the week before in the Outlook, and I had stated that well, watch for a break of either the low of the election bar or the high of the election bar. So obviously, with everything that has occurred, the break was on the lower side of the election bar. So watch, be cautious down here of a potential short-term bear trap near between 1.0450 and 1.05. That’s the area you got to be careful of; that’s all I’m saying because there are warning signs in the VP software that there could be a problem.
U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc
Now, when we look at the US Swiss Franc, once again, the US Swiss Franc is an interesting pair because it also counts as a safe haven currency. So when I’m looking at it now, I’ve got a pushup, and then maybe a little bit of profit-taking on Friday. That’s entirely possible, so the high there is 0.8918. Even if the dollar is very, very strong, it’s possible the Swiss Franc can be also. So right now, once again, another MA Diff Cross to the downside, the predicted RSI heavily overbought territory. But again, we need tools like the MA Diff Cross that are contrarian, that are telling us, ‘Look, the market’s going up, but something internally, based on the correlation to 31 other markets, are not.’ So that doesn’t mean that it will absolutely go lower, but a corrective move, pick your corrective points, guys. T cross long, 0.8749. Click on your F8, and you have your long predicted, that’s coming in at 0.8839. We know if you’re going to buy, then you want to buy between these two levels. Now, I will say for Monday, the predicted low here is at 0.8849, the long predicted is 0.8839, so that connects the dots to a predicted moving average and the predicted high and low of the day. There isn’t a significant gap between those, so it simplifies the entry process and says, ‘Okay, I think I can put it right in there, and then I can have my stop-outs or underneath the T cross long, or I can buy between the long predicted and the T cross long.’ But it gives us that area with a warning sign with the MA Diff Cross suggesting, yes, we are going to likely come lower. I suspect if that does come lower, it’s not going to be Monday; it’ll be Monday after 10 a.m. or will be Tuesday, Wednesday.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar
Now, the Pound Dollar, the data coming out of the Pound Dollar, obviously, that fundamental is affecting the British Pound, but the break of the yearly opening price, guys, 1.2731. All eyes now should be on that particular level. If we remain below 2731, then we are likely going lower on this pair. But again, December is not a favorable month in most cases for the dollar, but this could be different this year, as what I’ve already discussed. So we’ll watch it, but either way, if you’re a cable or British Pound bull, then I would recommend just putting buy limit orders above 1.2731 and wait for it to come back, cross back over that area, so you’re not getting caught in a bear trap down here. But again, if that MA Diff Cross is trying to produce a contrarian buy signal and our retracement point, which has absolutely nothing to do with conventional Fibonacci or anything like that, is our long predicted, 1.2870. And again, click on your F8, and then you can get your additional level. Now this one is particularly interesting to me because the long predicted is sitting right on the current calendar yearly opening price. And again, we don’t want to measure performance from random points. If I went back two years or 6 months, I want to know where I am in the calendar year because, as I’ve talked about many times in these presentations, that at this time of year, many, many markets come back to retest where they began the year, and that’s the most simplistic way to put this. If you bought or sold the British Pound US Dollar on January 1st of this year, you’re up a little bit or down a little bit, but these moves in between have been very significant, and I can assure you there will be a significant move from this particular level, either to the downside or the upside. But for it to be to the downside, we must hold below 1.2735, and if we’re going to buy this thing, we should be buying it above 1.2735, or until we get a contrarian signal sooner.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now with the Japanese Yen, once again, this could trigger a potential carry trade. Again, we’ve talked about this in the VP live room. I would caution everybody with the Bank of Japan that they could be getting ready to intervene somehow because I’m sure they know what I know, and the potential for a dollar rally is very strong. So if that’s the case, it would reignite that carry trade, which they don’t want. So be careful with this particular pair. The monthly opening price here, I believe, to be a big one, that’s coming in at 1.52. We’ve got our TR cross long, 1.5317. Longs carry a very slight edge, but the fundamental of what the Bank of Japan is going to do here, be very, very cautious.
U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
Now, the US Canadian pair, once again, failing to some degree on Friday and pulling back down, closing at 1.3934. Uh, once again, very interesting that we had that move lower, but in mid-2025, I believe buying Canadian Dollars should be a pretty good play. Just gotta see where we go with these tariffs, but I believe there will be an election sooner rather than later in Canada, and I think Canada will go down a very similar path as the US is going. So if
that’s the case, that would be positive for the Canadian Dollar. So the Bank of Canada is still a wild card, but for now, our TR cross long, 1.3911, we don’t have a strong contrarian signal here to sell this yet. So my view would be if we break down below the monthly opening, we break down below the T cross long, then we potentially have a trade here, guys. So we’ll see where we go with this one, but the main thing is, know your levels, 1.3911. Longs are favored below 1.3911, a much deeper move down, probably towards the quarterly opening at 1.3526. We always want to have those price targets, guys, and using current levels is very important.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
Now the Aussie US and the Kiwi, a very similar trade to the Canadian Dollar trade. We are going to need the equities moving higher, some of your metals, we need more of a risk-on environment to get the Aussie moving again. But for now, as you can see, the structural bias over a 2-year period is going to look very similar to the Euro US pair. So right now, you can see this longer-term channel. Is it possible we could get back down to 63? Well, it is possible, but I think for now, the immediate verified low is coming at 64.73. So, keep an eye on that area next week. If the dollar stumbles a bit or there’s a corrective move on the dollar, profit-taking, then that would send this back up on a shorter-term basis, maybe for a couple of weeks. But we shall see. So right now, again, we look for any kind of contrarian signal. We don’t have it right now. The MA Diff Cross was deadly accurate yet again as it got all tangled up in the TR cross long. Now again, using a single predicted moving average, it removes any kind of lag out of the market. It basically allows us to see how the market is reacting to that predicted moving average and the correlation to 31 other markets. That’s the whole concept behind this, guys. Right, so I often have a two-day rule; it’s got to get close above the TR cross long 2 days in a row in order for me to say, ‘Okay, we’ve got a trend.’ But I also want to be able to identify the primary trend using the quarterly opening and the yearly opening, and even the monthly opening. And this trend is down; there is no question about it. So, that single close above here, uh, the very next day, we are closing right back down again. But understanding the structure of this can be very, very helpful to new and old traders alike. Uh, it’s never too old to learn something different and apply it because, again, we always want to stay current. If you’re looking at, you know, every month we have new CPI, new PPI, new Fed, new Bank of Australia, we have all these things that occur every 30 days, they reoccur every quarter, they actually reoccur every year. So we want to know where we are in that, and you have banking transactions that occur in November that don’t occur in October. That’s why isolating the month is extremely helpful.
New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
