Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Dollar Index
Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 25th, 2024. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index. Now, once again, a significant move to the upside this particular month: 3.57%. Now, once again, here guys, we don’t want to be looking at what the market’s done in the last random 5 days or random 30 days; you’re not going to get a true measurement of the performance in that particular month. This would also apply to seasonal patterns and things of that nature. So when we look at that, we want to know exactly what the performance is, using the first day of the month. So, a 3.57% rally in the dollar is a very strong rally, for a currency, to say the least.
Now, what we do look for here are signs of a potential reversal. We have the MA diff cross that has taken place at the high of 107.10. So, it is possible that this break higher here is a false one, in thin, liquid Friday trading. Because, as you can see, this newly formed verified resistance high contained the dollar for the entire month. But we had a very minor retracement on the Tuesday, I believe it was, and then it started to rally back up again. So, for now, we want to be wary. Usually, going into the month of December is not a great month for the US Dollar; it’s usually a very strong month, mid-November into mid-January, even late January, for Gold. So, our key level, once again, we want to make, because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that has already taken place, we want to understand where these key pivot levels are. The T Cross Long: 10572. When we click on the F8 in our VP software, we really get a feel for where the market is retracing each day, which again has absolutely nothing to do with waves, Fibonacci, any of this stuff, guys. The predicted moving average, with the correlation to 31 other markets, somebody is buying on a daily basis. So, until this ends, we should be doing the same, but we should be very, very cautious of an overextended dollar.
But again, as long as we’re holding, and that level to start the week is going to be 10680. So, with that potential false break above here, if we break down below the verified resistance high and we break down below that long predicted, the chances are we’ll have a deeper retracement.
Gold
Now, a point of interest here, Gold again, using the start of the month, the monthly opening price, we can see that Gold is down about 1.14%. So, it would be very easy to flip the script on this, and the dollar gives up its gains, and Gold extends higher in a risk-off environment. But once again, here, we’re crossing over our T cross long, the key level to start the week: 2,657. Now again, if we click on the F8 in our software, we can see that our long predicted at 2,556 is additional downside support, but we need to break above the current monthly opening price. That’s our target, guys: 2,743. We get above that, and Gold should resume its uptrend. But for now, we’re firmly up on the year; we’re just down on the month.
Now, looking at the indicator, here’s what does look quite good here to me: the medium predicted difference and the long predicted difference have crossed over the zero line. That means that there’s a medium-term crossover, a short-term crossover, and my personal favorite, the long-term crossover. We’ve got a break of the predicted RSI. There’s momentum building in today’s world, guys; momentum is your best friend. Overbought and oversold is not. So again, we’ll continue to monitor this, but if Gold is going to stumble, it will be around 2,743.
S&P 500 Index
Now, with the S&P 500, once again, here guys, whether we look at the S&P or the SPYs, now the SPYs are not up 1% on the month here, guys; that’s simply not factual. We’re up 4.03% on the month. It’s very, very important that we’re using proper anchor points. When we look at the S&P, we’re up 4.33%. The spy on the S&P is basically the same trade: one’s an ETF, one’s on the future side, but it’s the same; it moves in the same way. So again, when we look at it, accurate measuring, accurate performance, using proper anchor points: the beginning of the year, the beginning of the quarter, the beginning of the month, even the beginning of the week, which we’ve worked on in the VP live room, can be your best friend here, because it measures price. So, right now, momentum is building again, yet again, on the S&P 500. So, if we can push above the most recent verified resistance high: 6017, then we may have significant further significant upside into the year-end. But usually, at this, what I will gently warn everybody, I believe it’s next week, is the US Thanksgiving, and historically, that has been a very volatile week. So be careful with stocks. I would argue next week, until we get past that holiday, I believe it’s on the Thursday for you, for the Americans. So be careful around Wednesday and Friday of this particular week; we could really see some volatility.
But for now, VP is suggesting the indicators in the software are saying we’re going higher. Now, our T Cross Long there, our main pivot: 5,904. When we click on our F8, we look at our long predicted, and you can see that one’s at 5,940. So, this is almost like an inverted yield curve here, guys; they’re in the wrong direction here. I prefer to see this light-colored blue line above the T cross long where, in actual fact, it’s above that. So, that’s saying that we have resistance actually at 5,940, but we have had a strong, once again, a very strong close at 5,969. So, 5,940, that’s what we want; if this is going to continue higher, we want to stay above 5,900. The long and short of it.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Now, with Light Sweet crude oil, again, we can see that we’re still, we’re up about 1.3% on the month, but we’re down on the year here, guys. The yearly opening, 71.78, there is some, it appears to be some bullish momentum in this particular commodity of light sweet crude oil, but what we have to remember is that yearly opening price has contained this market, and again, using proper, not a rolling performance model, guys, we want to know where Oil, if you bought oil on January 1, you are still losing money on this, okay? You had periods where you were making money, but if you’re still holding it, you’re down money, again. So again, that 71.78, we need to break above it, and historically, it very seldomly does it this time of year unless maybe we get a cold snap, but we’ll see. But for now, the indicators are bullish; my very strong advice would be to be very, very cautious just under the 72 Mark, even with the bullish indicators. That current calendar yearly opening price could be the end of any short-term rally in oil.
Volatility Index ($VIX)
Now, when we look at the comparative analysis to the VIX, once again, this is very, very interesting here, guys. We’re down 23.47% in the month of November. Again, I’m not going to go 30 days and say the 30-day performance from the 22nd of the month; that doesn’t make sense. That rolling performance would be very misleading. You could one could say, oh, well, it’s super bullish or something, right? Because you’ve got your anchor points wrong. So, right now, I believe that prior to the US election, they were buying both the VIX and the equity markets, and they clearly dumped out of the VIX long trades once we, surprisingly, that the Republicans had a clean sweep, the house, the Senate, it’s not just about the presidency, guys, it was about who controls Congress here. So, that now, they’ve put their bets on the equity markets, and they’re pulling other their Longs on the VIX. That’s my opinion only, but it answers why you’ve had such a volatile move. They don’t need to hedge; they feel, not saying they’re right, I’m just saying they feel they no longer need to hedge their bet. Now, they’re all in on the stock side. They exit the VIX.
DAX
So, does that have any kind of effect here on the European markets? Well, I would argue, to some degree, it does. And with some of my good friends from Germany had asked about the DAX, and you can see right here, guys, they’re buying along the current monthly opening price. So again, if I took a random 30 days, and I didn’t use the current calendar monthly opening price, then that would put a level up here somewhere, and that would be extremely misleading, right? But there is your current monthly opening price, and we can assess that they’re actually buying off that. The, and I put up the percentage here because, for me, percentages are they reign supreme, especially when we’ve never been at some of these levels, and the equities and the Commodities haven’t been at these Bitcoin never been at these levels before. So, a physical Fibonacci is of no use to me; all these other things are not telling me what just the current calendar monthly opening will opening does, and is the market still willing to buy up here. So, 1.12%, I would argue there’s potentially better value in the DAX than there maybe there is in the S&P, but they’re both, they’re about 90% positively correlated to one another. Excuse me. So be careful if the S&P 500 does tank, then it’s going to pull the DAX down with it. Don’t kid yourself, guys, there’s a very, very high correlation, but there is a good-looking buy signal. Predicted differences, predicted RSI, everything looks like it’s a go here, for this to go higher, but it is still going to need that S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and all of those to go up also.
Bitcoin
Now, with Bitcoin here, Bitcoin, I haven’t looked at it this weekend; we’re sitting right on the cusp here, in my respectful opinion only. If the 100,000 Mark goes down on Bitcoin, which is extremely likely, I would suggest that there could be a significant amount of short covering, which could very quickly push Bitcoin to one 20, maybe even 130. If it doesn’t break 100, and we stay below it, well, that could have some of your Longs taking profit here. But once again, we are a little bit overextended, but that has had zero effect because if you look at conventional indicators, overbought, oversold, accumulation distribution, this type of indicator can very often get you in or out too early. And when you right now, this is why we use these VP predicted moving averages. So you can see, on the pullback, it’s pulling back to, if you click on F8 in your VP software, that predicted moving average, the market has been in contact with it every day last week, guys, and that’s when it’s okay to buy high. Am I a big fan of buying high and selling low? Not really, no, but if the conditions and if the technicals, the intermarkets, and all of these things come together, and I have a good support level to buy from, and it’s holding, then yes, I’m fine with buying high because it’s a momentum-based market. That is, in my respectful opinion, what is happening here. You’ve got people that are coming in that have missed the rally that are trying to get in. You’ve got people that are already long, were concerned that they’re going to take profit, then you have a probably a large number of analysts have been very negative on Bitcoin. I’ve been the exact opposite of that for years now, and so if they’re, they’re going to have to cover those shorts, then again, it would likely be sooner rather than later, and it could be the final thing that blows Bitcoin right through the 100,000 Mark. So keep an eye on that one, but a 100K for this coming week is very important.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, when we look at our main Forex pairs, guys, the one thing that the G7 pairs all have in common is they’re all either you’re either buying or selling US dollars. That is the game here in the Forex Market with these pairs. The euro is under significant selling pressure, and the ECB is not helping that at all. You can see, last year at this time, we were starting to rally back up again, but we were above the yearly opening price. This year, we’re not. So again, it still remains bearish. Losing that 10450 area has certainly been problematic. You can see we’ve had minor retracements, but you can see the stacking up here: 10884, the red is the monthly opening, the blue is the yearly opening price, the green is the quarterly opening price. These are anch, these are proper anchor points in your trading to determine what the real trend is, guys, and that’s telling us that there are no buyers here, but I believe there will be, but right now, we still remain quite bearish.
U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc
Now, with US Swiss Franc, when we look at it again, some good selling up here around this 89 Mark, but then we, as we retrace back to our Tross long, that T cross long was sitting at 87.64, and it pulled up, but again, if we click on our F8 in the software, you can see that yes, it broke through our long predicted, but it was supported by the Tross long and ultimately rallied back up. So, for your more aggressive traders, you could look at shorts here around 89.50 on Monday, but you would be fighting a strong trend. Ultimately, I believe the Swiss Franc will overtake the dollar again because, again, when you look back, go back over the many years, this pair is usually well above parity, and we haven’t been there for ages. So again, we’ll monitor this, but if the US Dollar Index continues to advance, and it’s not a false break above 107, then US Swiss Franc can go higher.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar
Now, Great Britain, US, a very popular pair. Now, once again, this is a great example of not using that rolling performance model and getting solid anchor points. The yearly opening price was pivotal. You can see that the high of 12715, the yearly opening price, was at 12732. This past week, I had limit orders to buy just above the yearly opening price, and I didn’t get filled, but I had a very clear plan; that is my line in the sand: 12732. I believe it can push back higher, but I’m not going to fight the trend. I will put my limit order to buy above the calendar yearly opening price when it turns bullish again, but the T Cross Long is also a problem area here. We’ve got to get above that area: 12764. So once again, guys, we look at the structure of the market, the yearly opening price, which is coming in at 12732, the monthly at 12899, and the quarter at 13375. This, in of itself, represents a very bearish picture for this particular pair, and ultimately, by the end of the week, that was the outcome. So, once again, we do have an MA diff cross to the upside. Be careful with this pair, but again, keep a very close eye on that US Dollar Index.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now, with US Japan pair, is the carry trade back on is the million-dollar question. Well, for now, I would have to argue, it potentially is. And again, with that outcome of the US election, not just who won the presidency, guys, that’s not what it was all about; it was about who gets control of Congress also, and I didn’t think they would win both, but they did. So, right now, the T Cross Long is 15390. When we click on our F8, you can see we’re struggling a little bit around 15483, so if we get above that area, then this pair could extend higher, but I do believe the Bank of Japan is going to be on the prowl, looking to intervene here. So, we know where our key levels are, guys, but once again, the structural bias of this market is very easy for the average and professional trader alike to see if you have the proper anchor points: 14103, 14364, 15203, and then we’ll have a new weekly opening price next week, which will likely come in around 15477. So, if we’re staying above 15477 next week, then the probability is you have a long trade yet again, but I’m sure that the Bank of Japan will be watching this very, very closely. So, be careful with this particular pair.
U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
Now, the US Canadian pair, still under pressure, but we did have some selling up here at the 1.41 area. There is some resistance up around that area, but for now, you can see that the Vantage Point T Cross Long is running right along the monthly opening price. We’ve hit down there two days in a row and we’ve bounced off of it to the upside on Friday. What I’ve often talked about is a Monday Tuesday reversal; whatever this pair does, guys, on Monday, it usually does the exact opposite by the end of Monday or into early Tuesday trade. So, be careful with this pair. If we can break down below 1.3945 and close below that for two days in a row, then maybe we’ve got a short trade, but there really is very little reason to be buying Canadian dollars right now, other than a stronger stock market in the US. But the dollar still reigns supreme; if that US Dollar Index falls, then we can look more closely at shorting this particular pair, which is possible going into next week. The Aussie and the Kiwi will follow the Canadian dollar, as long as that Canadian dollar is weak, usually the Aussie is also.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
We’ve got the Aussie, we’ve got the Kiwi, and now we have to see what the likely outcome is going to be. Now again, we’ve had a big push on the Aussie dollar, but again, the Aussie US, excuse me, that’s the Aussie New Zealand, the Aussie US is being fueled by the chart you just saw. Aussie New Zealand; now that’s all based on the Bank of New Zealand and the very dovish rhetoric that they’ve put out. So, it boosted the Aussie, and it kind of killed the Kiwi last week. So, I would look for the Kiwi to rebound potentially this coming week and the Aussie to come under pressure. So, right now, as we can see with the Aussie, the structural bias of this market, the quarterly opening, the monthly opening, the yearly opening, this is a very bearish picture, but nothing just goes straight up, and nothing goes straight down. We have a verified support low that’s coming in at about 64.41. If we can hold above this area, then maybe we’ve got some longs on this one going into December; it’s possible. But the indicators are showing signs of life with the Aussie US, but I can advise, guys, it’s coming from people buying the Aussie New Zealand pair.
New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
So, you can see this big move up in Aussie New Zealand; that’s how what Aussie is benefiting from. They have to buy Aussie US and sell New Zealand US to buy Australia New Zealand; that’s what’s going on. The cross pair is doing that. So, as you can see, the Kiwi being under pressure here, uh, this structure of this looks even weaker, but that could rebound. Right now, there is a makeshift corrective buy signal on both Aussie US and New Zealand US, but without a strong market, an equity market, and a dollar moving lower, both of these two are likely to remain under pressure.
So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 25th, 2024.
