Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Dollar Index
Now, we have the non-farm payroll number on, I believe, on Friday. It’s going to be volatile. We’ve got the US election, but after all of the dust settles, the Dollar is likely to move lower sooner rather than later. But again, this distortion often happens in election years. But again, the V.P. indicators are very mixed across the board, but the predicted differences are pointing lower. Again, we want to make sure we’re being cautious up here, but before and if the Dollar can rally any further, it would have to move above this very stiff resistance just below the 105 level.
S&P 500 Index
Now, when we look at the equity markets going into the next week, they’re holding in there. I believe that they’re likely hedging their bets with the VIX, because again, it’s very seldomly do we see the VIX and the S&P 500 both above the yearly opening price, the monthly opening price, etc. But we are showing signs of weakness. We do have a crossover—the pink line crossing the zero line. We have a little bit of momentum to the downside. Now, remember the Dollar is usually strong at the end of the month into the first week of the new month until we get that payroll number, and then either way, the following week, it usually sells off. And with that election pending, that is still very possible. Very stiff resistance up here now, technicians will call that a double top, but very seldomly do double tops produce any really big moves. So, we’ve got our resistance high at 58.70, but the stocks really are holding in there.
Very important that we’re usually using proper performance measurements. Now, we’re not up huge on the month, that’s for sure, but with the VIX being down, surprisingly, it’s interesting that we’ve been able to even hold this well. So when we look at the true performance for the month of October, rather dismal, but it’s also important that that number is an accurate number. So, we’re up about 8.7, 8.7% little less to around 1%, but we are getting a very mixed signal here. We’ve got a medium-term crossover, but our shorter-term indicators are telling us we’re going higher, so a mixed bag. Our T-cross long is at 57.92, but that monthly opening price, 57.57, you can see here on Wednesday, they’re buying off that level, so that pretty much confirms that the Dollar is on borrowed time.
Gold
Now, with Gold here, we’ve had Gold moving up and down throughout the week—sorry, just a minor data issue there, that seems to be resolved—so we can continue here. So, Gold contracts, once again, still holding firm. We’re above the yearly opening at 2634, long while above that area, the quarterly opening, 2634, but our T-cross long, 2685. Most of the indicators remain bullish except for M.A. diff cross. The M.A. diff cross is likely telling us we’re going to get a corrective move back to our T-cross long at 2685. It’s not a new trend, guys, until we break down below the T-cross long and the quarterly and monthly opening price. Gold long still heavily favored into year-end.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Now, Light Sweet Crude Oil, when we look at that, we’re getting all tangled up again. You can see this is why it’s very important that we stay away from the rolling performance model, where we pick a random 52 days, a random 52 weeks, a random 30 days. We always use the current monthly and the current yearly opening price. So, as you can see, four short trades in a row off the T-cross long and the yearly opening price, so that doesn’t look overly bullish for Oil, but the indicators and Vantage Point are suggesting it is possible here. We’ve got 62.6 on the predicted RSI, the M.A. diff cross. We’re but we need to clear 71.78 and stay above that. That will confirm, that will then and only then confirm that we’re going higher, but it does look like there’s a good shot that we could extend higher based around the medium-term V.P. indicators.
Bitcoin
Now, Bitcoin, once again, having a fantastic month here, up over 10%. I believe so if we look at it from the current monthly opening price and what was suggested, what was going to happen in the month of October, has definitely borne fruit. So, we look at this at the high so far in the month of October from the beginning of the month using that monthly opening price, about 8.35%. We’ve had multiple days bouncing off the T-cross long. This suggests we are going higher. Our M.A. diff cross, right now, guys, this is telling us it’s a corrective move to the T cross long. For a new trend to develop to the downside, we would have to break below 66084 and the quarterly opening at 63.801. That’s what must happen; we must have that predictive RSI also breaking down below the 40 level to tell us we have momentum. So, it’s more likely than not that Bitcoin is the one that will extend higher with equities and not the US Dollar. So, again, watch these levels very closely, and I would argue longs are still viable while above 63.801.
But Bitcoin very, very profitable on the year, opening the current calendar year at 42.501. Again, very important that using the current January 1st, 2024 yearly opening, anything behind that, guys, has very little relevance in what we’re doing in 2024.
Volatility Index
Now, when we look at the VIX, we can see that the VIX is running along, remains positive on the quarter, above our T-cross long, above the yearly opening price, but we’re just dead flat, so you could have people hedging their positions in the VIX with the equity markets anticipating a potential crash. That is possible, but for now, once again, the indicators are dead sideways on this VIX, so we’ll see where we end up with it, but for now, something’s got to give, in my respectful opinion. This is either going to go up or down, so the main move on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the Dow, that’s going to help determine what we get here. But again, we’re not necessarily in a risk-on environment either with what’s going on globally, but once we get past the US election, I think we will have a clear picture as to what’s really going on. But very seldomly do you have the VIX and the S&P 500 both above the T-cross long and both above their respective quarterly opening prices. So again, we are likely to see some kind of move here very, very soon.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, when we look at the Euro, some of our Forex pairs, the Euro/US right now currently, uh, we’ve got a bottom, what appears to be a bottom in place on Wednesday. That low coming in at 1.0762, that’s consistent with a verified support low at 1.0778 back on August 1. So, we’re going to see if we can build off this, but we’ve got to get above our T-cross long if we have a shot of getting back towards 1.10, 1.11. If we can clear the T cross long at 1.0889, that will open up the door, but we’re not likely to see that until we get past the non-farm payroll number. Once we get that number, then we can see where we’re at, but for now, a retracement back to 1.0889 appears imminent.
U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
US/Swiss Franc, once again here, we’ll just pause for a minute. I’ve got a data issue going again. Okay, we’ve got that data issue fixed. So right now with the US/Swiss Franc, we’ve got resistance building up at the high, that’s coming in around .8670. I do anticipate that if that level breaks, then the maximum
this pair is likely to see is .8749, where we would be looking to short into year-end, and then, but we’ve got to look at it from a retracement standpoint, .8613, the T-cross long would be our first downside target, then .8456, followed by .8410. The indicators are weakening to the downside but a little bit more momentum again until we get through that payroll number.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now, the British Pound/US Dollar, once again, another verified support low is forming here, 1.2908, that’s what we’re going to use for next week. Yearly opening price, 1.2732. We’ve got some bullishness in the indicators but very little momentum in the market. So, once again, I believe we will deal with it with the T-cross long. 1.3051 is our initial target for the week. We must clear that if we have any chance of getting back to 1.3375. The indicators are moderately bullish, but again, very little momentum on the pair.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now, with the Dollar/Yen, the Dollar/Yen is going to continue to frustrate traders here, both on the upside and the downside. A lot of different things going on with it right now with the Bank of Japan, the Fed, everything else, but I believe it will be very, very difficult for this pair to pass the high at 155.22, even in last year’s trading with that crazy carry trade that we had to deal with, you could see that the pair capped out at or about November 13th, that again would be consistent with the week after the non-farm payroll number, and then we sold off into the year-end as Gold rises. I anticipate more of the same this year, but more dramatically, a bigger sell-off potentially. So, again, right now, our T-cross long would be our retracement point, 149.55, then we start layering in our downside targets, 143.64, 141.03. That is very likely we will get down and back down into that area by mid to late November.
U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
Now, with the Bank of Canada interest rate cut this past week, they’ve, they’ve got what they want, they’ve priced it in, but as you can see, there’s very little follow-through, and we’re getting into some very stiff resistance between 1.3860 and about the 1.40 level. The additional high, 1.392, so we are entering into the sell zone. These red clouds above here, uh, definitely dark skies for the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar, but the indicators are not overly bearish at this particular time, but one way or the other, probably by late week, we’ll be looking at some kind of retracement likely back to the T. cross long, 1.3755, but if we click on F8 in our software, you can see them buying right off the Vantage Point predicted moving average every single day, but if we can break down below 1.3842, that should trigger some selling on the pair, uh, as they exit US Dollar longs, even if it’s just profit-taking, and 1.3526, I believe, is a target we can reach by late November. We just have one final bow run with this particular pair.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
Aussie/US and New Zealand/US almost identical here, guys, but you can see the yearly opening, the monthly and quarterly opening price. It’s a very dark cloud above here, but on the downside, I believe we are, we’re likely going to be limited to around the .6613 area. We’ll keep an eye on that. I don’t feel we have enough to get back down into the .63 area. The immediate downside that we’ll watch will again be about the .6613 area. If that can hold, then we’ll be looking to rebound for a retracement back to .6812. I believe the indicators are warming up to that idea, but they need to get moving, but again, we’ve got to get through that payroll number, and the Kiwi, of course, the exact same trade, breaking down here. The Kiwi not quite as weak as the Aussie, but once again, if the Aussie rebounds, we’ll see the Kiwi and the CAD rebound with them.
